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20121027
20121104
SHOW
STATION
WHUT (Howard University Television) 6
KQED (PBS) 3
WETA 3
KRCB (PBS) 2
WMPT (PBS) 2
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English 16
Search Results 0 to 15 of about 16 (some duplicates have been removed)
vote by one point and obama wins ohio and iowa by one point that is possible, maybe a one or two-point shift but there is most no way to look at the historof tsounry or try to do the more complex things, the mathematical models unlikely to have romney win the popular and have him lose the electorial college. >> rose: the sites and sounds of hurricane sandy, mark halperin and nate silver when we continue. funding for charlie rose was provided by the following. additional funding provided by these funders. and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> hurricane sandy barreled through the northeast last night, the devastating impact was wide-ranging, cities and towns were hammered by the storm that left many without power and other vital resources. here are some of the sights and sound of the storm as scene on cbs this morning. we knew this was going to be a very dangerous storm and the storm has met our expectations. >> it is underassess righ
, obama is ahead in most polls of ohio he is ahead in most polls of iowa, wisconsin, and nevada as well and those four states. >> rose: by two or three points. >> two or three-point not an overwhelming margin but you can look historically and how often does a candidate who has a two or three-point lead in an election, does he how often does he convert that to a win and the answer is about 75 percent of the time. >> rose: so you said 75 percent likely obama will be elected? >> that's right because the states are what we call the tipping point states that would swing the electorial college margin he has a two or three-point lead, so it is not for sure but we can use statistics and data that just look up how often those lead translate into a win. > > rose: zero so is critical point here is that many people say paul, david brooks wrote a column. >> sure. >> as you know basically saying a poll is a paragraph of a moment in time. >> right. >> rose: period. >> uh-huh. >> rose: no prophecy from that. >> my understanding, what you say is, yes, no prophecy, but you can look and reference it to ot
, but -- >> then why a are polls all over the place? not every poll has obama winning in ohio. >> first if you look at the whole group of polls we have a two-point romney lead to a five or six-point obama lead, the average is going to do better a than any one poll individual think, polling is difficult now, because you can only get about ten percent of people on the money, polls are hoping that those people who they do get are representative of the ones whom they don't get, different views about who will turn out and who won't, about the, differ on the democrat grafnls and statistical uncertainty as well. >> depending on the model the poll uses will affect the result. >> a different hype these almost. >> .. if you assume a more vigorous turnout because obama has good ground game for example those have him winning, no more at that like opportunity thousand ten environment where republican enthusiasm prevail they have a very tight in ohio instead. >> rose: okay. but do you say when you look at all of these polls, i have noted you are a statistician, you noted in the polling you measure other polls? >
can't break through in ohio. then there is another argument that says advertisements don't stick with you very long is so all that money that was spent over the summer by the obama campaign didn't stick. and so now the money that is being spent in these last minutes by the romney campaign will stick because, they're reaching low information, undecided voters who are just now tune approximating in. they don't watch the news a lot. they get their messages now as they start to think here comes the election. they see an ad, that forms their opinions. off they go to the polls. >> rose: looking at your analys, wt youorr about that you might have missed or might be wrong, you and others. >> two big things we could have missed. one, is the is is that romney has more than we think he does. that there is a group not getting caught in the polls that he's got support that is not showing up in all of these polls. >> rose: a silent majority. >> a silent majority. that is just a worry because you don't know. we trust in polls and the polls have shown a certain thing. you always think maybe we'
Search Results 0 to 15 of about 16 (some duplicates have been removed)